El Nino less likely


The Bureau of Meteorology has decreased its El Nino likelihood estimations to “El Nino WATCH”, meaning there is now approximately a one-in-two chance the weather pattern will emerge over the coming months.

In a step down from the previous ranking of “El Nino ALERT”, which placed the likelihood at around 70 per cent, the BOM observed that sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific remain close to El Niño levels but water beneath surface has slowly cooled over the past few months.

“International models surveyed by the Bureau indicate the sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific Ocean are likely to remain close to El Niño thresholds until mid-winter, before cooling in late winter to spring,” the Bureau said in a statement.

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